Locating offenders: Introducing the reverse spatial patterning approach

Current strategies for locating where offenders live either focus exclusively on individual suspects or generalize to entire neighborhoods. However, better estimates of are located may improve models the ecological distribution crime, and forecasts locations future crime incidents. We propose a novel reverse spatial patterning (RSP) strategy that based events. rely distance decay function – consistent finding do not travel far commit Hipp's (2016) general theory patterns, work backwards from actual events make predictions about in subsequent years. then use these predicting locations. create two versions RSP: one which assumes everyone is equally likely offend, another creates an estimate assuming disproportionate offending across persons. test effectiveness our proposed measures using offense arrest data St. Petersburg, FL, assess how well they predict location (proxied by arrestees) find evidence RSP provides also incidents variety types compared existing strategies. The approach useful creating live, allow These will more efficient allocation police resources targeted suppression efforts.